Posted by: Grant | August 29, 2010

Russian Fires, Pakistan Floods – NOT

 
ICECAP
Saturday, August 14, 2010
Frozen jet stream links Pakistan floods, Russian fires
By Michael Marshall
New Scientist
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/frozen_jet_stream_links_pakistan_floods_russian_fires/
 
" …So what is the root cause of all of this? Meteorologists are unsure. Climate change models predict that rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will drive up the number of extreme heat events. Whether this is because greenhouse gas concentrations are linked to blocking events or because of some other mechanism entirely is impossible to say. Gerald Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado – who has done much of this modelling himself – points out that the resolution in climate models is too low to reproduce atmospheric patterns like blocking events. So they cannot say anything about whether or not their frequency will change. ICECAP NOTE: These models are worthless on any scale or time frame…. "
" …There is some tentative evidence that the sun may be involved. Earlier this year astrophysicist Mike Lockwood of the University of Reading, UK, showed that winter blocking events were more likely to happen over Europe when solar activity is low – triggering freezing winters (New Scientist, 17 April, p 6).
Now he says he has evidence from 350 years of historical records to show that low solar activity is also associated with summer blocking events (Environmental Research Letters, in press). “There’s enough evidence to suspect that the jet stream behaviour is being modulated by the sun,” he says.
ICECAP NOTE: Hurd ‘Doc’ Willett of MIT presented at the 2nd Annual Northeast Storm Conference in 1978 a view of how the 22 year cycle affected weather patterns. His Hale Cycle work would have suggested the recent minimum 2007-2010 should be one of high “persistence” and thus low “variability”. This may have been augmented by the 106/213 year cycle concurrence. The patterns intraseasonally have been amazingly persistent since 2007. Willett passed in 1992. We are glad to see Professor Lockwood is back doing good science. See below, enlarged here…. "
 
"Scientists say" ring a ring a rosie, a pocketfull of posies, a tisket a tasket, we all fall, down.
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