Posted by: Grant | April 27, 2013

Sea Level – New Paper

~meSeems the sea level rise since the last ice age is actually around 1.5mm per year – 130mm by 2100 – NOT 1,100mm, not 800mm, not even a “low” rise of 500mm per year, as claimed on this official government website –

Whether the CSIRO are presenting science, or propoganda, or are simply lying to us, would seem to be a mute point when one reads and examines this excellent and extremely detailed scientific paper.

~scienceSmallTrade Science Inc. – INDIA
Present-to-future sea level changes: The Australian case
Nils-Axel Morner1, Albert Parker Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Rosundavagen 17, 13336 Saltsjobaden, (SWEDEN) University of Ballarat, PO Box 663, Ballarat, VIC 3353, (AUSTRALIA)

In their report published in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[1] concluded that sea level (SL) is likely to rise between 18 and 59 cm or38.5 ±20.5 cm by year 2100. Though this is a significant lowering from previous estimates by IPCC, viz. 62.5 ±47.5 cm in 1990, 53.5 ±40.5 cm in 1995, 48.5 ±39.5 cm in 2001 and 38.5 cm ±20.5 cm in 2007, it has still been widely cited as a major threat to human habitation on low-lying coasts and islands.

The Australian Federal Government’s Climate Commission[3] recently claimed that global warming could cause global sea level to rise even up to more than 1 metre by 2100. Furthermore, they stated that the primary cause of global warming almost surely was due to anthropogenic activity. In their sea level prediction, the commission[3] also included predictions by Rahmstorf[34] and proposed reconstructions of global mean sea level by Church and White[11]. They conclude the sea level has changed by about 3.25 cm over the period 1970-1990 and by about 5.4 mm/year over the period 1990-2010, indicating a significantly accelerating in the rate of sea level rise over the last two decades.

In this paper, we will try to demonstrate that neither the mean rates given nor the proposed sea level acceleration can be substantiated by observational facts. We also want to stress that a proper evaluation of availabledata on present sea level change is vital as the outcome forms the basis for a number of important socio-economic decisions.

Of course, we really should wait for some signifigant global warming before we start predicting any signifigant sea level rise.
Antarctica? – no.
Greenland? – no.
Arctic sea ice?  – floating ice therefore irrelevent to sea level.
Global fossil fuel burning? – now over 9 times WW2 consumption.

Waiting, waiting, waiting.


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