How does global warming cause extreme weather?
Over my many years of studious researching I have never found any scientific explanation of the simple question – “how does an increase in global temperature cause an increase in extreme weather? How does it work?”
Not one single paper.
I mean the globe warms and cools all the time. We seem to get just as much bad weather when it is cold as when it is hot. The history books do not seem to record more bad weather in hot eras than in colder eras.
The claim that “Climate Change” will cause “extreme weather” seems spurious to me because the amount of extreme weather is not and cannot be quantified. It could be trivial.
Climate Change will also cause nice, calm weather. The UNIPCC do not discuss the nice, calm weather.
The UNIPCC is the authority cited in all extreme weather claims.
In their original, Third Assessment Report– http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/011.htm they claim –
” …When radiative forcing changes, the climate system responds on various time-scales. The longest of these are due to the large heat capacity of the deep ocean and dynamic adjustment of the ice sheets. This means that the transient response to a change (either positive or negative) may last for thousands of years. Any changes in the radiative balance of the Earth, including those due to an increase in greenhouse gases or in aerosols, will alter the global hydrological cycle and atmospheric and oceanic circulation, thereby affecting weather patterns and regional temperatures and precipitation…. “
OK, so it will effect it, but how? and by how much and WHY?
In their Latest effort, the IPCC’s special report on climate extremes – SREX (Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation) http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX is a massive 594 page exercise in tautology.
It takes a short, small, global temperature rise, assumes that it is causing extreme weather and then computer models and projects it up into a serious threat.
It parleys what could well be a trivial, insignificant, undetectable change in extreme weather events into an impending possible disaster.
One would hope that they would offer some explanation of how global warming causes extreme weather events in the summary or the introductions. If it is there, buried somewhere, in the 594 pages, or in the mountain of cited references, PLEASE let me know. I can’t find it.
Instead of offering ANY scientific explanation, it comes out with little gems like this – “It is very likely that there has been an overall decrease in the number of cold days and nights,(3) and an overall increase in the number of warm days and nights,(3) at the global scale” – DURH!!
I’m abject, I really would like to know. What is the argument? Is it entropy – more heat causes more disorder? Surely Carnot requires that a heat difference causes the degree of activity? Is it activity – more heat makes everything more active? Like hurricanes only occur in the tropics? But then it gets pretty breezy in Antarctica and the Bearing sea too, doesn’t it?
The UNIPCC simply has not substantiated its claims with science or with even a simple explanation – they just made up “extreme weather” as they went along. Could we have the science please?