Posted by: Grant | May 26, 2013

Antarctica – NOT

 Here is a paper on Antarctic sea ice extent from people who were not paid millions of dollars to go down there and find “Global Warming” on the Antarctic Penninslar!

GRL
Can natural variability explain observed Antarctic sea ice trends? New modeling evidence from CMIP5†
Lorenzo M. Polvani1,2, Karen L. Smith2,* DOI: 10.1002/grl.50578
©2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50578/abstract

Keywords:Antarctic sea ice;Global climate models;Natural variability;Sea ice trends

Abstract

~scienceSmall[1] The recent observed positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent are at odds with the expectation of melting sea ice in a warming world. More problematic yet, climate models indicate that sea ice should decrease around Antarctica in response to both increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion. The resolution of this puzzle, we suggest, may lie in the large natural variability of the coupled atmosphere–ocean-sea-ice system. Contrasting forced and control integrations from four state-of-the-art models, we show that the observed Antarctic sea ice trend falls well within the distribution of trends arising naturally in the system, and that the forced response in the models is small compared to the natural variability. From this, we conclude that it may prove difficult to attribute the observed trends in total Antarctic sea ice to anthropogenic forcings, although some regional features might be easier to explain.

The politics here –

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK
Saturday, May 25, 2013
New paper finds Antarctic sea ice increasing despite models predicting decrease
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/new-paper-finds-antarctic-sea-ice.html

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