Posted by: Grant | July 8, 2013

“Catalyst” Junk Science Masterpiece

This super glossy piece of trite pap from the AUS government broadcaster asks the very pertinent question. How does global warming produce extreme weather? and then FAILS dismally to answer it.

It is a veritable masterpiece of obfuscation.

Scientists say children with larger shoes sizes have much better handwriting, therefore having big feet makes it easier to write. (thus assuming correlation is causation – children with larger shoe sizes may be simply older and more practiced at handwriting and the Earth may have warmed up slightly anyway – it does that.)

STORY ARCHIVE CATALYST
Thursday, 4 July 2013
Extreme Weather
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3796205.htm http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/tv/catalyst/catalyst_14_11_wildweather.wmv

It starts off by citing a few heatwaves and other bad weather around the world. YAWN.

NARRATION Heat waves that kill tens of thousands. Apocalyptic floods. Blizzards in the Middle East. How is it that a slightly warmer atmosphere can create weather that swings from one extreme to the next? From lazy jet streams to baking soils, in this report we explain the mechanisms behind some of the most catastrophic events of the decade. Anja Taylor. Understanding exactly how a warmer world drives weather wild is crucial to predicting just how bumpy a ride we’re in for. NARRATION In 2003, a heatwave settled over Europe. But this was no ordinary heatwave. By the time it was over, more than 40,000 people were dead. Dr Erich Fischer. So 2003 was remarkable in many aspects. It was far warmer than ever before – two to five degrees on average over the whole summer. NARRATION It was likely the hottest weather event in Europe in 500 years. Yet, just seven years later, an even more intense heatwave hit Russia, setting the country on fire. Summer temperatures reached up to 13 degrees above average, and the death toll from heat stress and respiratory illness was estimated at more than 50,000. Dr Erich Fischer It was much larger in spatial extent, so it covered almost two million square kilometres. Really, we’re not that used to such extremely hot summers. So it is surprising to see a clustering of such strong events. It wasn’t only the two, there were three other very warm summers within the same decade. Anja Taylor. Global average temperatures have only increased by 0.8 of a degree Celsius. One would think that this would just lead to slightly warmer summers. But, actually, it’s greatly increasing the chances of extremely hot weather. NARRATION This past year in Australia, we’ve seen plenty of heat. At the Bureau of Meteorology, forecasters have been watching record after record tumble. Dr Karl Braganza January was the hottest month on record. The summer was the hottest on record. And the sea surface temperatures around Australia were the hottest on record. We had temperatures in Bass Strait, south of Melbourne and south of Adelaide, up to six degrees above average. But, in terms of heatwaves, what we find is the elevated ocean temperatures reduce the amount of cold outbreaks we get. And, particularly during April, we had a prolonged heatwave with very hot night-time temperatures, and those sustained night-time temperatures are indicative of warmer waters to the south of Australia, and that’s what we saw.
These are blatant LIES – see – http://joannenova.com.au/2013/06/australias-angry-hot-summer-was-hot-angry-hype-satellites-show-it-was-average/
andhttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/04/the-australian-bureau-of-meteorology-gets-it-wrong/

Then it’s time for a glossy graph – a bell curve graph – an amazing claim that by increasing the average temperature,  you are actually increasing the average temperature and average temperatures are – wait for it – hotter! DURH!

Then they throw this little gem in – “NARRATION: Worldwide, heatwaves have been increasing in duration and frequency since the 1950s.” an extremely dubious and unqualified statement – “lies damned lies and statistics”.

But WAIT – there’s more;

At huge cost to the taxpayer we discover that a few heat waves were exacerbated by – wait for it again – “dry soil”.  So we’re getting worse heat waves because? well because we’re getting worse heatwaves – DURH again!

Then we discover that the Argo Floats show an increase in some sea surface salinity which has gone up markedly in the last 50 years, begging the question how did we measure global salinity before the Argo Floats were completed in 2007? Research Vessels? Mmmm? (and why even bother with the salinity parameter, the floats measure temperature down to 700 metres, perhaps the temperature data shows no warming at all?!)

Then we get to the nub of the argument –

NARRATION:   The big surprise is how fast the change is occurring. For every degree rise in air temperature, the water cycle is intensifying by percent. That’s double the climate-model predictions.
Dr Susan Wijffels:   The intensity of the storms are likely to go up, because the moisture in the atmosphere is actually the feeder energy stock that drives storms. And we expect droughts and floods to amplify as well.

Unfortunately NO attempt is made to amplify or explain this mechanism. So we are still in the Dark – the question remains “How does a small rise in Global Temperature cause more bad weather?” How does it work? and where is the science? Waiting, waiting, waiting...

Then we fly off on a tangent again – Toowoomba had a really, really, bad storm!  – Toowoomba! – OMG – Yawn.

Then an attempt is made to explain away the really bad, record cold, after record cold, winter in the entire Northern Hemisphere, by the jet stream being influenced by an albedo effect from melting  Arctic ice which is no longer reflecting sunlight, a patently absurd proposition because in the Arctic there is no sunlight to reflect!
DURH!
That’s why it is so cold! The sun barely gets above the horizon.
The carbon dioxide “greenhouse effect” has NO effect on the insolation in the Arctic.
This is then qualified by this amazing statement – “How jet streams are being affected by a warming Arctic is still highly unpredictable, with many other interactions affecting their speed and movement”, which amazingly disqualifies their own premise.

snoutsintroughLPerhaps the whole thing is summed up by the “Story Contacts” all of whom are paid very large amounts of money to prove “Climate Change”.
It’s the best science that billions of dollars can buy. 

All with their snouts in the trough.

Dr Erich Fischer Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH
Dr Karl Braganza Bureau of Meteorology

Dr Lisa Alexander Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW
Dr Susan Wijffels Marine and Atmospheric Research, CSIRO
Professor Jennifer Francis Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University.

 

Find a detailed expose on this “Catalyst” Junk Science here
JO NOVA BLOG
Witchcraft on Catalyst — Scary weather is coming, it’s all our fault, be afraid!
http://joannenova.com.au/2013/07/witchcraft-on-catalyst-scary-weather-is-coming-its-all-our-fault-be-afraid/

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