Posted by: Grant | September 2, 2013

New UNIPCC Report Overtaken By Events


Can The IPCC Do Revolutionary Science?
Posted on August 31, 2013
Guest Essay by Barry Brill

” …In his seminal 1962 work, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Thomas Kuhn persuasively argued that science does not progress through the linear accumulation of knowledge but undergoes periodic revolutions or ‘paradigm shifts’.

In Kuhn’s view, no evidence that is incompatible with the current paradigm will be entertained during long periods of normal science. However, as anomalous results build up, science eventually reaches a crisis which drives the necessary acceptance of a new paradigm, which subsumes both the old and new results into a new framework. Kuhn calls this transformative point, revolutionary science.

2013 is ushering in a long-delayed revolution in climate science. A new paradigm is demanded which recognizes that AGW is but one non-determinative component in a ‘non-linear chaotic system’.

Dealing to the paradigm shift

All of this leaves the IPCC in a terrible bind regarding its September meeting. Should it:

• rubber-stamp a SPM that has been overtaken by events?

• add a major caveat to the state of play in March 2013, promising an addendum will be issued to cover post-cut-off papers? or

• adjourn the meeting to accomodate a crash program to re-write both the WG1 Technical Report and the consequent SPM?…. “


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