Posted by: Grant | September 28, 2013

AR5 – So Much Climate – So Little Change

The UN IPCC has come out with a new giant volume of climate science – the Fifth Assessment Report – http://www.climatechange2013.org/

If this summary is any indication, there is nothing new or noteworthy – the Earth’s Climate is normal. The earth’s temperature is perfectly normal.

There is really no need for them to explain why all their computer models (97% certain!) failed to “project” the “slowdown”, they already did that way back in their 2001 Assessment Report WG1 – “The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”  ( http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm http://nofrakkingconsensus.blogspot.com.au/2010/06/ipcc-says-climate-prediction-impossible.html )

1normal

THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Key findings of IPCC report on climate change
STOCKHOLM — The Associated Press
Published Friday, Sep. 27 2013, 7:37 AM EDT Last updated Friday, Sep. 27 2013, 9:42 AM EDT
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/key-findings-of-ipcc-report-on-climate-change/article14563683/?cmpid=rss1

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international body established by the UN in 1988, presented a summary of its latest assessment on climate change on Friday. Here are the key findings:

• Global warming is “unequivocal,” and since the 1950’s it’s “extremely likely” that human activities have been the dominant cause of the temperature rise.
Yes the Globe has warmed since theLittle Ice Ageended in 1850. It is , however, impossible to say how much is due to human fossil fuels because science cannot prove what the temperature would have been without burning them AND the temperature rise is unremarkable, well within normal natural variation.  

• Concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have increased to levels that are unprecedented in at least 800,000 years. The burning of fossil fuels is the main reason behind a 40 per cent increase in cabond-dioxide concentrations since the industrial revolution.
Yes, the burning of fossil fuels has been a wonderful boost to the biosphere with all plant and animal life flourishing. Human fossil fuel burning really only increased significantly since WW2. Prior to that out-gassing from dissolved CO2 from the natural ocean warming was the main cause.

• Global temperatures are likely to rise by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees C, or 0.5-8.6 F, by the end of the century, depending on how much governments control carbon emissions.
The argument that we don’t know what the temperature will be in 2100 but we do know it will be 4.8oC hotter (there is NO chance governments will control anything!), is now proven specious. It is admitted that “natural forcings” have now neutralised for 15yrs the on-going rise caused by the 337 gigatonnes we have added to the approx. 3000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide in the air for the last 60 years.

• Most aspects of climate change will continue for many centuries even if carbon-dioxide emissions are stopped.
Yes, climate does change, it is never static, death, taxes and climate change are all inevitable! We may have another “Medieval Warm” or a “Roman Warm” period or the present hiatus may herald a new “Little-ice-age” as the lack of sunspots suggests. When will the next big Ice Age kick in? – that’s due soon or a shield volcano may go off again.

• Sea levels are expected to rise a further 26-82 centimetres by the end of the century.
IF, that is, whatever is neutralising the present warming rise does not continue neutralising that alarm or the lack of sunspots heralds a global cooling period!

• The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass over the past two decades. Glaciers have continued to melt almost all over the world. Arctic sea ice has shrunk and spring snow cover has continued to decrease, and it is “very likely” that this will continue.
They have been loosing mass since the last ice age and will continue to loose mass until the next ice age! Not all Glaciers are receding, not even a majority, although nobody has ever surveyed the tens of thousands of them all! Sea level rise is normal also.

• It’s “virtually certain” that the upper ocean has warmed from 1971 to 2010. The ocean will continue to warm this century, with heat penetrating from the surface to the deep ocean.”
Accurate ocean temperature measurement only began with the first Argo Float in 2000. Argo Float data still shows no significant warming of the oceans – here. Before that there was only very spasmodic and unregulated data from ships. To use the data from 1971 to 2000 to claim “virtually certain” warming of the oceans is just a blatant lie.
The “Heat-penetrating-to-the-deep-ocean” theory is new.
Like the associated “Causes-all-the-bad-weather” theory, there is no real scientific theory behind it – they just made it up as they went along. The assertion that more heat will somehow agitate the atmosphere, and, now new, the oceans, causing bad weather and now hiding the heat, is not supported by any scientific explanation let alone proof, just doctored up statistics.

The new report contains the same fundamental errors as all the previous reports. (See sidebar)
You would need to go through it with a magnifying glass to find any good effect of global warming.
How do we know if the bad effects out-weigh the good effects of the globe warming a few degrees? Where are the good effects? Ice caps melting is very slow and some more bad weather may be worth the boost given to the biosphere.
The report makes the same old philosophical assumption that the present planet is perfect, with static geo and bio-systems and that human influence is always a desecration of it.

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