Posted by: Grant | October 26, 2013

Dr Carl’s Pseudo Science.

~meGreat moments in science?! – I don’t think so.

Now THIS is a veritable masterpiece of obfuscation and gross distortion bordering on outright lies.

It is so typical I thought I’d debunk it for you.

Fact is there has been no warming of the Earth for 15 years – the UN IPCC itself says so –  http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/09/23/ipcc-ar5-admits-they-have-no-clue-what-caused-the-15-year-pause-in-warming/

“The observed reduction in warming trend over the period 1998–2012 as compared to the period 1951–1 2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced trend in radiative forcing (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due to volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the current solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing this reduced warming trend. {Box 9.2; 10.3.1; Box 10.2}”

Dr Karl › Dr Karl’s Great Moments In Science
No warming for 16 years?
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2013/10/08/3864474.htm
listen here –
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/science/podcast/gmis/gmis20131008.mp3

DrKarl“Well, this preliminary report was somehow misquoted and misinterpreted by some of the news media — so let me try and put the record straight. First up, you should realise that the IPCC itself does not directly monitor the climate, nor does it directly carry out original research. No, this scientific body (established in 1988) is made up of thousands of climate scientists who review the research and then write the reports.”
LIE – this report was written by a room-full of 300 government nominees in Swedenhere .

“Even before this report was released, some of the news media (such as the Daily Mail in the United Kingdom) recklessly claimed that this latest IPCC report revealed that global warming was over”
DISTORTION – some of the media may have claimed that, but the Daily Mail and almost all others did not “claim global warming was over” they almost all pointed out that the UN IPCC itself acknowledged a “pause” – see here
UK DAILY MAIL
MIT scientist ridicules IPCC climate change report, calls findings ‘hilarious incoherence’
By Daily Mail Reporter
PUBLISHED: 04:39 GMT, 30 September 2013  | UPDATED: 04:39 GMT, 30 September 2013
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2438434/MIT-scientist-ridicules-IPCC-climate-change-report-calls-findings-hilarious-incoherence.html

“Not all experts agree with the latest United Nations report on global warming, some are even amused by its findings. A climate scientist from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has come out blasting the report for blaming humans for a global warming trend that appears to have cooled in recent decades – and then glossing over the warming slowdown.”

 It says the “trend” has “cooled”, not the globe has cooled!

“and that in fact, the world was now cooling. This was very wrong.”
DISTORTION – This is NOT “very wrong”. It is a statistical fact that, since Galileo started counting them, when sunspots are few the Earth is cool and when sunspots are many the Earth is warmer. Sunspots have all but disappeared.
The Earth may very well have stopped warming and started cooling. (here)

“For one thing, nine of the 10 hottest years on record have happened in the last decade.”
DISTORTION – This is obvious and unremarkable dogma. The Earth will be expected to have warmed since the 1850’s when the Little-ice-age ended. The earth’s temperature fluctuates naturally.

“In the atmosphere of our planet, this carbon dioxide upsets a previously stable balance (heat in versus heat out). This balance is between the amount of heat energy entering the atmosphere from the Sun, and the amount of heat energy leaving the surface of our planet and heading out into the blackness of space.”
LIE – A balance is a balance – The Greenhouse effect is defined by the balance between heat absorbed from the sun and heat radiated back into space – we are not “upsetting ” a balance, just resetting the balance – the Earth’s temperature is remarkably stable and self-regulating in the short term – around 1998 it jumped nearly a whole degree in a about a year and quickly re-balanced itself.

“Carbon dioxide behaves a little like a semi-silvered mirror. It has the effect of ‘reflecting’ some of the heat energy that leaves the surface back down to the surface again. It’s not a huge amount of heat — for each square metre of the Earth’s surface, there’s about half a joule of the energy trapped each second, or if you like, half a watt of power.”
DISTORTION – this is a gross over-simplification of an extremely complicated radiative effect. The main complication being that the absorption band of CO2 is almost saturated and it has an inverse logarithmic effect. (To labour the analogy – doubling the thickness of the silvered mirror has virtually no effect on the amount of heat it reflects)

“The trouble is, the surface of our planet has many many square metres. So that extra heat reflected back down to the ground is roughly equivalent to exploding a few hundred thousand Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons in our atmosphere — every day. Or to use another odd unit, that extra heat could boil dry all the water in Sydney Harbour a couple of times each day.”
DISTORTION – This is “blinding you with science”. Carbon dioxide is a trivial GHG. The Earth’s GHG is water vapour. Water vapour reflects back a few million “Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons – every day” and “could boil dry all the water in Sydney Harbour” ten times each day.
Dr Karl has also left behind the inconvenient fact that the human contribution to atmospheric CO2, while significant, is still very small.

“The overwhelming majority of the heat trapped by the extra carbon dioxide in our atmosphere enters the oceans.”
DISTORTION – Notice we have suddenly jumped from “heat radiated” to “heat trapped”.
Since the earth is 70% ocean, it is axiomatic that most of the heat re-radiated back to the surface from carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans. Water is a fluid with a very high specific heat, in constant motion.

“Only about 2.3 per cent of this extra heat energy goes into heating the atmosphere…….”” So if only 2.3 per cent of the extra heat energy warms up our atmosphere, and another 4.2 per cent goes into bits and pieces, where does the other 93.5 per cent go?
Into the oceans.”
SO WHAT Dr Carl?!
We have a significant, but small, human contribution to a minor GHG, carbon dioxide, which has an inverse logarithmic effect, and radiates a very small amount of heat back to the surface, which is 70% ocean and that is where almost all the heat goes? This is not new. This is not rocket science. DURH!

“These ARGO probes have measured the heating of the oceans caused by that 93.5 per cent of the heat energy reflected back down by the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It turns out that about two thirds remains in the upper ocean between the surface and a depth of 700 metres, while the remaining one third of that heat energy goes deeper into the ocean — between 700 and 2000 metres.”
LIE – Since the ARGO floats have not detected ANY temperature rise in the oceans at any level, It is impossible to say where the non-existent heat goes! (The above claims are probably based on misinterpretation of salinity, not temperature, data from ARGO – here).

~me“Now here is a fact that not many people appreciate”, Dr Carl.
The UN IPCC dismissed “natural forcings” of the Earth’s temperature and then used computer models to claim “Global Warming” would produce “Climate Change”.
The computer modellers were all very well aware of the fact that most of the warming would go into the oceans, yet, with one or two lucky exceptions, they all were all WRONG.
The Earth warmed slowly since the Little-ice-age and then “paused” for 17 years.

As you say yourself – “What effect will this have? At this stage, we simply don’t know”
What we DO KNOW is that we are now accurately measuring the heat content of the oceans with the ARGO floats and there is no discernible rise in ocean temperature – none. Waiting, waiting, waiting…

We do not need a New World Order at the UN at this stage, let’s just watch the ARGO data for a few more decades and see if the globe is actually warming – or not. We have added 337 gigatonnes to the approx. 3000 gigatonnes in the air yet the air has stopped warming and the oceans haven’t even started.

POSTSCRIPT Dr Carl was a 2007 Senate Candidate for the Climate Change Coalition – http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/i-got-it-wrong-dr-karl-admits/2007/11/08/1194329413164.html – another fact not many people appreciate!

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Responses

  1. The situation of supposed ‘missing’ heat can be detailed by regarding your repeating of the language of the ‘warmist’ Grant. Regard “this extra heat energy”.
    The situation is that CO2 does not bounce back ‘heat’ but, rather, Energy. That Energy exists as Photons and can only become Heat by interaction with a Material. I usually ask of the ‘warmist’ …’what is it that actually is warming?’ to which I generally receive near incoherently expressed nonsense. Then there is the effort to fabricate some ‘average’ material within models…its inconvenient to regard that actual Materials involved perhaps?
    So the materials must be able to interact with those photons to begin with, and few of the Atmosphere’s components can…except H2O. Another point I’ve mentioned is that there is not trapping effect, no ‘extra’ Energy. The density of the Atmosphere decreases outwards, interception rates decrease outwards thus. So if a CO2 molecule can bounce a photon up or down with equal probability (as we are so often told) than to that must be added the greater chance of outward progression…the original situation is loaded to favour outward motion of that Energy (which is not at all describable as ‘heat’ in any valid manner).

  2. Thank you for your input Peter. You are why I said it was a gross over-simplification of an extremely complicated system.


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