Posted by: Grant | November 3, 2014

New UN IPCC Report – FAIL

Same old same old.

The UN IPCC continue to parley a large increase in a trivial GHG, and the perfectly normal increase in global temperature since the Dalton Minimum, into an urgent problem.

They still lack definitive science to confirm the hypothesis that global temperature will somehow agitate the atmosphere and cause “extreme weather” while it also calms the atmosphere and causes drought and heatwaves.

They maintain their superstitious fears with selective data, statistics, modelling, anecdote and by a perverse definition of science by a Leftist political consensus.

They do acknowledge their massive failure to accurately take “natural forcings” into account in their prognostications, but fail to correct it.

In the face of stalled temperatures they have switched to an energy metric, the solar/global energy balance and the ocean energy sink.

 

imagesUNIPCC
Synthesis Report – SYR AR5
1 November 2014 http://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_LONGERREPORT.pdf

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen. “
But did humans cause it?
Since they started the Global Warming scare in the late 1980’s the Globe has continued to warm slightly and unremarkably following the Little Ice Age or Dalton Minimum (1790 to 1830).
Records began in Europe when the thermometer was invented around 1750 . 
At present the Globe is hovering – since 1998 – at around 0.2oC above the average since satellites began global measurements in 1979 – http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
A short period of Arctic ice decline has been countered by a large increase in Antarctic Sea Ice.
Sea level has continued the long slow rise seen since the last ice age – so what?

” …Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m (Figure 1.1). The rate of sea-level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia…. “
There is simply no acurate way of measuring sea-level rise to that accuracy over that time period. Are they seriously suggesting they know, for sure, what the sea level rise was, for instance, from 1001–1110?!

They try to minimise and explain away the massive failure of “111” of their “114” climate models – (actually they were ALL wrong) ” …For the period from 1998 to 2012, 111 of the 114 available climate-model simulations show a surface warming trend larger than the observations…”
” …Natural internal variability thus diminishes the relevance of short trends for long-term climate change. The difference between models and observations may also contain contributions from inadequacies in the solar, volcanic, and aerosol forcings used by the models and, in some models, from an overestimate of the response to increasing greenhouse gas and other anthropogenic forcing (the latter dominated by the effects of aerosols)….

and they say –
“…The evidence for human influence on the climate system has grown since AR4. Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in global mean sea-level rise; and it is extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans. Impacts are due to observed climate change, irrespective of its cause, indicating the sensitivity of natural and human systems to changing climate…. “

Nobody has ever measured the amount of bad weather over the whole Earth before the modern era and there is no worrying trend for any metric in the modern era. Citing isolated bad weather as a global trend is spurious. Lies, damned lies and statistics. There is no actual science for the Causes-all-the-bad-weather Theory.
Climate, of course, always has and always will change.

It is fundamental flaw in Green philosopy that the Earth is perfect and unchanging and we can blame humans for any changes.

 

Aussie Reaction
Where is “Climate Change” in the popular culture?  This exchange would indicate it is a dead dog,

This Aussie morning TV “Today” host brings up the subject with former ALP numbers man, Graham I-was-never-an-alarmist Richardson.

And hasn’t Mark Butler changed his tune since the ALP lost government? They were going to repeal the carbon tax BUT only so they could go straight to a price on carbon – oh – so they then vigorously opposed the repeal of it – Mmmm. 

Speaking of dead dogs, this was the attitude of Mark Butler in campaign mode as Climate Change Minister Oct. 2013 –

 

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