Posted by: Grant | December 1, 2016

Pirates & The Water Vapour Fallacy

Here are two Climate Change fallacies. They are correlation-proves-causation or cum-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc fallacies .

FALLACY ONE – Carbon dioxide levels have risen and global temperature has risen  therefore carbon dioxide levels caused the temperature to rise.piracy

FALLACY TWO – Global temperature has risen and global absolute humidity has risen therefore global temperature causes more global humidity.pirates

These superstitious greenies, masquerading as NASA scientists (yes the ones Trump so dislikes – GISS or Goddard), use a correlation-proves-causation fallacy in the link below as proof of climate change.
NASA – Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change
https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html

However, as other government scientists, real scientists, at NOAA have bravely pointed out recently – 
Home > Climate Monitoring > Monitoring References Greenhouse Gases
November US release: Wed, 7 Dec 2016, 11:00 AM EST – click the “water vapor” link

“…The warmer atmosphere can then hold more water vapor and so on and so on. This is referred to as a ‘positive feedback loop’. However, huge scientific uncertainty exists in defining the extent and importance of this feedback loop. As water vapor increases in the atmosphere, more of it will eventually also condense into clouds, which are more able to reflect incoming solar radiation (thus allowing less energy to reach the Earth’s surface and heat it up). The future monitoring of atmospheric processes involving water vapor will be critical to fully understand the feedbacks in the climate system leading to global climate change. As yet, though the basics of the hydrological cycle are fairly well understood, we have very little comprehension of the complexity of the feedback loops.”
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/greenhouse-gases.php – click the “water vapor” link

The simple fact is that the Earth’s water cycle is extremely complex as this greenie thesis also explains –
https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/pubs/thesis/2007-willett/1INTRO.pdf

For instance,
if global humidity has risen then global temperature has decreased – evaporation absorbs heat.
If global humidity is high you get more clouds and cloud formation cools the air around it – condensation releases heat and clouds reflect heat.
If clouds form then humidity decreases (the water is no longer a vapour) etc., etc.

If you look at the satellite record of the variation in global temperature from the average (the anomaly), over the last 3.7 decades – here – it regularly bounces up and then drops down within a range of 1 degree or so and there is no evidence of any kind of instability from any positive feedback. It appears to be remarkably stable and self regulating.

It is arrogant to the point of deliberate deception to claim that there is any definitive science behind the assumption that water vapour causes a positive feedback to “Climate Change”. They just made it up as they went along – “trust me, I’m a Doctor”! Without that feedback there is no Climate Change.

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