Posted by: Grant | February 23, 2017

Lies Damned Lies Statistics & Models.

Lateline last night, as usual, fails to balance its item on preserving climate change data – so I will.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2016/s4624686.htmabc-preserving-cc-data

Changing the Propaganda –
First they complain that the Trump Administration is changing existing pro-Climate Change propaganda or deleting it altogether.
The American people have not only elected a climate sceptic President, they have elected a climate sceptic Congress.
It may be very unpalatable to rabid leftists and the mass media, but the democratically elected President and Congress have a mandate to alter and remove this dangerous, superstitious garbage.

Suppressing Data – Maybe?
Then the item deftly suggests that modifying the propaganda “might”, “may”, could possibly,  lead to suppressing the actual data being collected, implying the data proves the doomsday theory.
Data is data. The climate data being collected by NASA, et al., proves only one thing – climate is changing as it always has changed, well within normal, natural variation.
Why would Donald Trump or any other climate sceptic want to suppress data which clearly shows that the global temperature and the global climate change are perfectly normal and not unprecedented?

“Lies damned lies and statistics” – it is not the data but how it is manipulated and interpreted that is the issue.

As this greenie points out, the data in question is fed into a model of what “might”, “may”, could possibly, be the future climate of the planet IF the assumptions made in the model are correct.
https://youtu.be/9CDiJQIlo9c

Model Fallacies
The main assumptions always made in these models are that the Earth’s temperature is not changing all by itself, that the rise of two degrees will be all bad and that an insignificant man-made greenhouse gas effect will somehow be uniquely amplified by an permanent increase in global humidity.
“The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible”https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm – a climate model is just an interpretation, it has no predictive value. With massive supercomputers we can model the weather a few days ahead but even that is not always predictive.

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