Posted by: Grant | February 26, 2017

Global Temperature – Normal?

Natural temperature variability.
If you google “global temperature” you will be astounded at how political it has become.
16 years ago we dropped a few thousand temperature probes (ARGO) into the Oceans and they have showed nothing – well a slight cooling if anything – a storm of controversy erupted because the ARGO were meant to show global warming. A great deal of correcting has had to be done to get rid of the slight cooling and explain why nothing is happening.

So how much does global temperature actually vary and how rapidly?
This article is fairly definitive – uses oxygen isotopes as a temperature indicator (proxy)

On a scale of 5 million years.five_myr_climate_change_rev
Global temperature now varies by about 8 degrees from ice age minimums to inter-glacial maximums.
The Earth was about 5 degrees hotter 5 million years ago.
Some time in the next few centuries New York, Chicago, Paris and Moscow will start to be buried in snow which does not melt in summer.

On a scale of 10,000 years.gisp-last-10000-new
Global temperature has varied by about 3.5 degrees.
The Minoan Warm period was about 1.6 degrees hotter than normal.
The Roman Warm period was about 1.5 degrees hotter than normal.
The Medieval Warm period was about 1 degree hotter than normal.
The Earth was about 1 degree hotter 10,000 years ago.

Over the Last 36 years (anomaly graph – the variation from normal)uah_lt_1979_thru_january_2017_v6-550x317
We have been able to measure the temperature of the whole Globe since 1980. Before that measured temperature data for the whole Earth simply did not exist.
As we now measure it, the Global temperature varies by about 1.5 degrees.
Spikes in 1998 and 2016 produced a natural Global temperature range of 0.8 degrees in about one year. The global temperature is self regulating. A spike of 0.8 degrees is quickly corrected.

These graphs show that global temperature is not static and it varies rapidly – about 8,000 years ago the global temperature rose 3.5 degrees in about 180 years that’s about 2 degrees in a only one century.
At present the global temperature is varying by about 0.8 degrees over the decades – all by itself – due to natural causes.

To claim that an observed or claimed warming of less than one degree must be human caused because the Earth’s temperature is otherwise static and does not vary enough by itself (“natural forcings”) is patently false and spurious. To claim human caused Global Warming, we must be able to take away the natural variation from the measured data. We can’t. If the Earth is warming it may be fossil fuels but it also may be perfectly natural.

Here, link, plotted from greenie data, is what the actual global temperature/year graph looks like – not very alarming is it? The global temp is still normal.nordhaus-4


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